Will XRP Drop Below $3 Again? Current Rebound Faces Sustainability Doubts

Latest Market Overview: XRP Briefly Reclaims $3

Chart: https://www.gate.com/trade/XRP_USDT

As of August 4, 2025, 11:00 (UTC+8), XRP’s latest trading price stands at 3.000 USDT, marking a 24-hour gain of 5.63%. The intraday high reached 3.031 USDT, with a low of 2.815 USDT. Over the past 24 hours, the trading volume totaled 22.61 million XRP, equating to approximately $66.23 million in turnover.

Although XRP staged a rebound during the day, it is still undergoing a medium-term correction, pulling back from the recent $3.65 peak.

Technical Chart Analysis: Rebound Lacks Strength, Downside Risks Remain

From the 1-hour candlestick perspective:

• Short-term support: A local bottom has formed around $2.72.
• Current resistance: Sellers are concentrated in the $3.03–$3.05 range.
• MA5 and MA10 have formed a bullish crossover but remain below the longer-term MA60.
• Trading volume hasn’t increased meaningfully, indicating the rebound lacks strong buying confirmation.

Given these signals, most view the rebound as a short-term technical correction from oversold conditions rather than a genuine trend reversal.

Order Book Depth & Trade Structure: Bearish Pressure Surfaces

The order book analysis reveals the following:

• Sell orders are densely stacked between $3.006 and $3.010, with order sizes above $3.006 exceeding 130,000 XRP—signaling heavy selling pressure;
• Buy orders are clustered between $2.995 and $2.998, but the notional value on the bid side is generally smaller than the sell side;
• Overall, the order ratio stands at 52.65% bearish to 47.35% bullish, reflecting a bearish market sentiment;
• Order depth at $3.000 is relatively thin, giving the price limited room to swing. Any large sell order could quickly break through support.

Why XRP Could Still Fall Below $3

While the price currently holds near the round-number mark, the following risks should be noted:

1. Rebound lacks volume support: Without sustained capital inflows, the market could see a bull trap develop;
2. Long-term moving average pressure remains: The MA60 continues to suppress prices, capping upside potential;
3. Macro sentiment is cautious: Bitcoin is fluctuating around $118,000 during the same period, offering little external support;
4. Overhead supply is dense: The $3.00–$3.10 range contains significant historical resistance from trapped positions, acting as an overhead supply barrier.

In summary, unless XRP can firmly hold above $3.05 in the near term and break through MA60 resistance, a retest of support in the $2.90 or even $2.80 zone is highly likely.

Investor Next Steps: Strategic Considerations

Investors with different profiles may consider the following approaches:

• Short-term traders: May consider initiating small short positions around $3.03, with stop-losses set above $3.08;
• Medium-term holders: Avoid chasing upward momentum; consider staggered entries on pullbacks to the $2.85–$2.90 area;
• Risk control first: If the price breaks below $2.72, anticipate greater downside risk and execute stops decisively.

Conclusion

While the recent XRP rebound has provided a short-term boost in sentiment, it has not changed the broader downtrend. Investors should closely watch changes in order book structure, any significant increase in trading volume, and whether XRP can consistently stay above the $3 mark. If it fails to overcome resistance at $3.05, a break below $3 is likely. This would mark the beginning of a new corrective phase.